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Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,315
Master Elite Member
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This is an interesting find. Hundreds of Natural-Selection Studies Could be Wrong, Study Demonstrates
(PhysOrg.com) -- Scientists at Penn State and the National Institute of Genetics in Japan have demonstrated that several statistical methods commonly used by biologists to detect natural selection at the molecular level tend to produce incorrect results. "Our finding means that hundreds of published studies on natural selection may have drawn incorrect conclusions," said Masatoshi Nei, Penn State Evan Pugh Professor of Biology and the team's leader. The team's results will be published in the Online Early Edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences during the week ending Friday 3 April 2009 and also in the journal's print edition at a later date. To demonstrate the faultiness of the statistical methods, Nei's team compiled data collected by their Emory University colleague, Shozo Yokoyama, on the genes that control the abilities of fish to see light at different water depths and on the genes that control color vision in a variety of animals. The team used these data to compare statistically predicted sites of natural selection with experimentally determined sites. They found that the statistical methods rarely predicted the actual sites of natural selection, which had been identified by Yokoyama through experiments. "In some cases, statistical method completely failed to identify the true sites where natural selection occurred," said Nei. "This particular exercise demonstrated the difficulty with which statistical methods are able to detect natural selection." Nei said that to obtain a more realistic picture of natural selection, biologists should pair experimental data with their statistical data whenever possible. Scientists usually do not use experimental data because such experiments can be difficult to conduct and because they are very time-consuming. Credit goes to an OEC on another forum for spotting this one. I think their analysis understates the problem. They're focusing narrowly on a couple of statistical issues they know they can demonstrate lead to bad results; but they ignore the root cause of error here: the assumptions that beneficial mutations actually occur, and "selection" occurs. And the folks involved are career-conscious, it seems. (Adding bold) These words are not consistent with the words of someone who believes "overturning evolution would win you a Nobel Prize". "But if the statistical method that they used is not reliable, then their results also might not be reliable," added Nei. "Of course, we would never say that natural selection is not happening, but we are saying that these statistical methods can lead scientists to make erroneous inferences," he said. Even so, we can expect opposition to any step in the direction of truth. Or even more likely, it'll just be ignored and "business as usual" will continue.
Dark Matter + Dark Energy = Dark Truth"We find that such evidence demonstrates that the ID argument is dependent upon setting a scientifically unreasonable burden of proof for the theory of evolution." - Judge Jones Kitzmiller case http://www.talkreason.org/articles/Falsify.cfm"To Compel A Man To Furnish Funds For The Propagation Of Ideas He Disbelieves And Abhors Is Sinful And Tyrannical." - Thomas Jefferson "And can the liberties of a nation be thought secure when we have removed their only firm basis, a conviction in the minds of the people that these liberties are the gift of God? That they are not to be violated but with his wrath?" - Thomas Jefferson
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